2005 Major League Baseball Preview: American League East
As they have been for the last 10 years or so, the eyes of the baseball world will once again be on the American League Eastern Division. The Yankees and Red Sox are seen as the teams that everyone else tries to live up to in the American League. Of course, the rivalry between the teams was taken up a notch with the ending of the Curse of the Bambino last year. Red Sox fans are still riding the high of last October. Yankees fans must finally acknowledge that their team can be beaten by Boston.
You may not know this, but the division also has three other teams. The Orioles, Blue Jays and Devil Rays all have their own goals; while it's highly unlikely that they will break through into second place, they will compete for third and pride. Fans of the Orioles will be quick to point out their season series win against the Red Sox in 2004, though.
So, does it really matter who finishes first or second? Not many other teams will be in the running for the wild-card in the American League; both the Red Sox and the Yankees will flirt with 100 wins this year. Considering the confidence that the Red Sox will have this year, it should be a very interesting year.
| 2004 Final Standings | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Games Improved |
| New York | 101 | 61 | — | 0 |
| Boston | 98 | 64 | 3 | +3 |
| Baltimore | 78 | 84 | 23 | +7 |
| Tampa Bay | 70 | 91 | 30.5 | +7 |
| Toronto | 67 | 94 | 33.5 | -19 |
Predicted Final Standings
* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
Once again, I am picking the Yankees to finish in first in the division. As I mentioned above, I don't think it matters much, as the Yankees and Red Sox should both make the playoffs; a few games here and there will mean a few more home games in October. Why did the Yankees fall short in the playoffs? Two of their pitchers, Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon, essentially ran out of gas after both pitching in over 80 games during the regular season. The starters last year were not going deep into enough games to let the bullpen ever have a rest. To that effect, the Yankees went out and got huge innings eaters in Randy Johnson , Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. Of the three, only Wright didn't pitch 200 innings in 2004, but he was coming off of injury. They made the moves they needed to. Was it enough?
| Rotation | Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright and Kevin Brown. The only major question is health; otherwise, they have 5 guys that can each win 15, and at least two that could take 20. |
| Middle Relief | Led by Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill, like in 2004. This time, the surrounding cast is improved, especially by the trade for Felix Rodriguez from the Phillies. Also, Steve Karsay's full return to health may also prove to be very important, as he can also be a set up man. |
| Closer | Mariano Rivera. Does anything really have to be said? |
| Infield | The right side gets changed with Tony Womack at 2B, and the return of Tino Martinez at 1B. The left side is solid with Jeter and ARod, as is Posada behind the plate. Four good gloves, with Womack being the lone exception. The bats of the newcomers should prove to be better than Olerud and Cairo were last year. |
| Outfield | Unchanged from last year, with one exception: Gary Sheffield's shoulder will finally be healthy. Bernie Williams is another year older, but Hideki Matsui is in a contract year. |
| DH | Jason Giambi. As sure as one cam be about Mariano Rivera, you can be that unsure about Giambi. The Yankees would be ecstatic with .280, 25, 80. Luckily, they don't have to rely on him. |
| Bench Depth | Not great, not bad. Bubba Crosby proved himself worthy of the #4 OF spot, but he's all field, no bat, and may lose the spot to Doug Glanville. The infield will be backed up by Rey Sanchez in the Enrique Wilson role. Ruben Sierra will get in the lineup when Giambi or Martinez sits. |
| Prospect Watch | #Andy Phillips may break through this year, but it is unlikely that any prospects will make the Opening Day roster otherwise. |
Post-season moves: A-. Shored up their weaknesses in the rotation even if there are still question marks.
Team grade: A+
Prediction: 1st in division (100-62)
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Finally! After 86 years, the Red Sox hit the pinnacle. So, where do they go from here? They went into the offseason with a lot of questions, and some were answered in ways that they didn't want to hear. One of their emotional leaders, Pedro Martinez, signed with the New York Mets in an odd negotiation. Derek Lowe is now on the Dodgers. They were replaced by underrated Matt Clement and David Wells, who finally had a good season without an NY on his cap. They also took a flyer on Wade Miller, in hopes that he'll come off his injury and pitch the way he's known to. The other major change was at shortstop, where Edgar Renteria fills the hole left by the Nomar Garciaparra trade last year. Of course, he's only a stop-gap until Hanley Ramirez is ready; I'll be surprised if Renteria is starting by the last year of his contract. A lot of players on the Sox had career years in 2004. Will they be able to keep up the pace in 2005?
| Rotation | Schilling, Wells, Clement, Arroyo and Wakefield to start the season; Miller will move into the #4 spot when he's ready. The loss of Pedro will hurt this team, though. |
| Middle Relief | Led by Mike Timlin and Alan Embree, but this will likely develop into a weak point. When Miller comes back, the addition of Wakefield to long relief will help tremendously. |
| Closer | Keith Foulke is a good closer, just short of great. |
| Infield | Millar, Bellhorn, Renteria and Mueller, with Varitek behind the plate. One of the reasons the Red Sox did so well late in the year was because of the addition of Doug Mientkiewicz as late innings defensive replacement along side Pokey Reese. Both are gone, and their defense suffers for it. These individual losses aren't great, but the combined downgrade in defense may really hurt them. |
| Outfield | Ramirez, Damon and Nixon. Manny's a perennial MVP candidate, but occasionally looks lost in left field. Damon and Nixon should have years as they're expected to. |
| DH | David Ortiz is one of the best hitters in the game. |
| Bench Depth | One of the reasons the Sox beat the Yankees in the ALCS last year was Dave Roberts' distraction of Mariano Rivera. He's gone. Kevin Youkilis will see plenty of time at 3B, and Jay Payton backs up the outfielders. |
| Prospect Watch | Youkilis may eventually take over 3B for good. No other prospects will see the light of day this year. |
Post-season moves: B+. No A if you lose Pedro.
Team grade: A
Prediction: 2nd in division (97-65)
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The Orioles went into the off-season needing to improve their pitching staff in the worst way. They had offense to spare; they had the best hitting left side of the infield in the majors, and a great offensive catcher. The rest of the lineup is rather potent. So, what do they do? They get Sammy Sosa, who was not needed by this team. Unfortunately, the pitching staff left a lot to be desired, and barely anything was done to improve it. Two of the five starters in the 2005 rotation had ERAs under 5.00 last year. The one bright spot of the off-season was the acquisition of Steve Kline, who had a stellar 1.79 ERA last year in the Cardinals' bullpen. This has all of the makings of a team that will lose a lot of games by scores of 10-8. Can their pitching help them to a .500 record?
| Rotation | Ponson, Lopez, Bedard, Cabrera and Riley. Ponson is at his prime, and has proven to be nothing to write home about. Lopez and Cabrera are young and promising, and could give the pen some leads. |
| Middle Relief | The middle relief has been a strength for years. This year, Buddy Groom is out, but Steve Kline is in. Also, with the closer swap, Jorge Julio moves into the setup role. |
| Closer | B.J. Ryan steps into the role for the first time. He had a 2.26 ERA last year, and should be able to come through for 25 saves. |
| Infield | Gibbons, Roberts, Tejada, Mora and Lopez. Average? Check. Power? Check. Defense? … maybe. This infield is one of the most solid offensively in the majors. |
| Outfield | Sosa moves to right, with Bigbie and one of Matos and Raines. Whoever is in center will be the weak offensive link. |
| DH | Rafael Palmeiro and his 551 HRs keep the DH role again. His numbers may be declining, but should at least have a chance to pass McGwire on the all-time HR list this year. |
| Bench Depth | Jerry Hairston is on the bench in Chicago; Chris Gomez will likely take his spot. B.J. Surhoff, Geronimo Gil and David Newhan provide some nice pop. |
| Prospect Watch | Mike Fontenot, Walter Young or Val Majewski may get some time in 2005. However, it's doubtful that any rookies will get any significant time in the majors. |
Post-season moves: C. Kline saves it.
Team grade: C-
Prediction: 3rd in division (75-67)
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There was a rumor late in the off-season that Aubrey Huff was going to be traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. If that trade had gone through, I'd have picked this team to be in last. They did make some… interesting moves in the off-season. They kept up their tradition of taking flyers on former greats nearing the end of their careers with the acquisition of Roberto Alomar. They also picked up Josh Phelps and Brandon Larson to compete for the infield spots. As it is, the Rays are a very young and up and coming team. They have some very exciting players to watch, including Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton , and Scott Kazmir. Delmon Young, Joey Gaithright and Josh Hamilton are waiting in the wings. Last year, they managed to climb out of last place for the first time in their history. Can they stay out this year?
| Rotation | Hendrickson, Brazelton and Kazmir will remain the top three all year, and Kazmir should be the ace by 2007. Rob Bell and Jorge Sosa will start at 4 and 5, but Hideo Nomo, who was given a minor league contract, should press for one of those spots. Denny Neagle, signed under the same circumstances, could hang around, too. |
| Middle Relief | This is one of the strengths of the club and, given their starters, must remain that way. The pen on the Rays is led by Jesus Colome and his rocket ball, Travis Harper and former closer Lance Carter. |
| Closer | Danys Baez warmed up nicely in the role last year, but needs to get his ERA down and his K/9IP up. |
| Infield | Huff, Alomar, Upton, Gonzalez and Hall. Huff is solid, and Upton will prove to be, although possibly not until next year. The double play combination of Alomar and Upton is intriguing, simply because Alomar is a sure-fire HOFer, and Upton is one of the two best SS prospects in the league (Richie Weeks being the other). |
| Outfield | Crawford, Baldelli and Bautista have defense to spare, and, with the exception of Bautista, speed beyond belief. |
| DH | Josh Phelps got away from Toronto and hit over .300 with Cleveland. He could prove to be a solid bat behind Huff in the lineup. |
| Bench Depth | Jorge Cantu has a nice bat, and Travis Lee returns to his Tampa Bay roots to back up 1B. |
| Prospect Watch | B.J. Upton gets the start at short this year, the first solid prospect to hit the bigs from the Rays system in a few years. In a few years, this could be one scary team. |
Post-season moves: C. Nothing spectacular, but the Nomo signing could be big.
Team grade: D+
Prediction: 4th in division (72-90)
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What happened to the Blue Jays? In 2004, they were coming off a 3rd place finish, a Cy Young award winner in Roy Halladay, and a very positive outlook for the future. Halliday was hurt for a lot of 2004, going 8-8 with a 4.20 ERA. Ted Lilly stepped up nicely for them, but one starter does not a rotation make, and the whole team suffered for it. So, what does Toronto do? They get rid of their best player from 2004! Carlos Delgado is now playing a few thousand miles south in the warm climate of south Florida. They did get Shea Hillenbrand to replace him, but that's 25 dingers that can not be replaced. Vernon Wells also had a bad year compared to 2003; he should bounce back this year. Somehow, Eric Hinske got into the doghouse; Corey Koskie replaces him at third. Hinske will split time with Hillenbrand at 1B and DH. A bunch of the Jays had off years in 2004. Will they bounce back in 2005?
| Rotation | Former Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay leads the rotation, backed by Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista, Gustavo Chacin, and David Bush. Josh Towers will challenge for a spot at the bottom. Halladay and Lilly are the only ones assured of their spots, but Batista should be fairly safe, too. Chacin may continue to develop after having a nice start to his major league career at the end of 2004. |
| Middle Relief | The Jays pen was horrible last year. They brought in Chad Gaudin, but how much can he really help? Highly touted free agent Kerry Ligtenberg was 1-6 with a 6.38 ERA. This must improve\to have any chance of holding leads. |
| Closer | Jason Frasor took over the closer role in the middle of 2004. His WHIP was almost 1.50 last year; a closer can not get away with these numbers. |
| Infield | Hillenbrand/Hinske, Hudson, Adams, Koskie and Quiroz/Myers. Rookie Russ Adams takes over at short after hitting over .300 in 22 games in 2004. New acquisition Corey Koskie moves Hinske over to a 1B/DH platoon. Decent bats, decent defense, but nothing spectacular here. |
| Outfield | Catalanotto, Wells and Rios. Wells is the marquee player on the team now that Delgado is gone; he must improve his numbers from 2004. Alex Rios was one of the hottest prospects in the majors before he took over the right field job last year, and he should also have a better year. All in all, a good outfield |
| DH | Hinske and Hillenbrand will split duties here. Both hope to improve over the terrible showing that Jays DHs had last year. |
| Bench Depth | John McDonald and Frank Menechino will back up the infielders, and Reed Johnson will be the fourth OF. Menechino and Johnson provide solid bats. |
| Prospect Watch | Now that Rios, Quiroz and Adams are up, that leaves Brandon League to possibly become the closer some time in 2005. |
Post-season moves: D-. Losing Delgado,and not improving the staff, hurts.
Team grade: D
Prediction: 5th in division (66-96)
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| 2005 Predicted Standings | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Games Improved |
| New York | 100 | 62 | — | -1 |
| Boston | 97 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| Baltimore | 75 | 87 | 28 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay | 72 | 90 | 31 | +2 |
| Toronto | 66 | 96 | 35 | -20 |
File last modified March 20, 2005
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