2005 Major League Baseball Preview: American League West
Potential. It is a word that is brought up often in the sporting world. A word that causes more hype than any other as potential is discussed through various catch phrases. Despite the overuse of the word, potential is the best word to use when talking about the American League West.
The Angels are a talented team made up of several players who have already realized their potential and a few prospects hoping to fulfill theirs. The A’s are counting on the potential of youngsters to provide cost effective replacements for established players that have moved on or been traded. The Rangers have the potential to outscore a majority of the teams they face with their barrage of bats. The Mariners have the potential to return to contention just one year after injuries and underachievement caused them to fall on their face.
Ultimately, proven talent is far more valuable than potential could ever be, which is why the Angels should run away with the division. But the West will be wild this year as Oakland, Texas and Seattle have flaws to go with all of their potential and should slug it out for second place. And if history is any indication, one of those teams will push Anaheim deep into the season by realizing its potential.
| 2004 Final Standings | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Games Improved |
| Anaheim | 92 | 70 | — | +15 |
| Oakland | 91 | 71 | 1 | -5 |
| Texas | 89 | 73 | 3 | +18 |
| Seattle | 63 | 99 | 29 | -30 |
Predicted Final Standings
* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
Payback was none to pleasant for the Mariners in 2004. After using all of their good karma on campaigns like the record setting 116-win season of 2001, the M's came crashing down to earth last season. Injuries and underachievement along with some horrible decisions by General Manager Bill Bavasi who brought in Rich Aurilia and Scott Spezio who flopped as free agents combined to sink the Mariners.
Bavasi has done much better in this off-season by adding two of the biggest bats available in Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. Their presence alone should greatly improve the Mariners woefully low run output from 2004. In addition, Sexson and Beltre are good defensive players and should help the pitching staff that also took quite a tumble in 2004.
As it is for most teams, health is a huge concern for the Mariners in 2005. Pitchers like Joel Piniero and Eddie Guardado must stay healthy for the club to have success, and Sexson's surgically repaired shoulder must hold up to keep his bat in the lineup. If the M's can manage to stay healthy, they have the makings of a good team, just not good enough to catch the Angels.
| Rotation | Jamie Moyer, Joel Piniero, Gil Meche and Ryan Franklin were all part of the 2003 rotation that saw five pitchers start every game of the season for the Mariners. With this group back in 2005 and assuming they are healthy, they should collectively bounce back from a horrendous 2004. While they probably won't be as good as in 2003, they won't be as bad as last year. Bobby Madritsch and Aaron Sele will also compete with Franklin for the final two spots. |
| Middle Relief | Juilo Mateo, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Ron Villone and J.J. Putz all should be in the Seattle bullpen in 2005. The other spot in middle relief has a wide array of candidates with veteran Jeff Nelson among them. |
| Closer | Eddie Guardado was having a great season for the Mariners before injuries derailed it. If he is healthy, Everyday Eddie is a great option for the M's at the end of games. |
| Infield | Sexson, Bret Boone, Reese and Beltre make up a very good infield offensively and defensively. While Reese won't hit much, he should form a slick double play combination with Boone. Sexson and Beltre can be counted on to provide plenty of power. If healthy and if Boone returns to form, the infield could have three players who hit 30+ HR' s. Even in an off year in 2004, Boone posted solid numbers for a 2B with 24 HR and 83 RBI. |
| Outfield | Ichiro and Randy Winn return in the Seattle outfield. We know what to expect from both of these players but the wild card is CF prospect Jeremy Reed. Reed has a good minor league track record and has shown good ability with the bat and glove. |
| DH | Raul Ibanez should get the majority of at-bats in the DH spot against right handed pitching. Bucky Jacobson kills left handed pitching so the pair should be a nice platoon and make for a productive DH spot. |
| Bench Depth | Last year's free agent Scott Spezio is pushed to a reserve role, which he is much better suited for anyway. OF Chris Snelling is another name that is being mentioned as a possible backup, but his annual injury will be here soon enough. Wilson and Spezio are capable backups, but Willie Bloomquist and Co. don't exactly knock your socks off. |
| Prospect Watch | The Mariners top prospect is pitcher Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and should be in Seattle before 2005 is over. OF Shin -Soo Choo should spend most of this season at Triple-A. Pitching prospect Clint Nageotte will start at Tacoma as well. The Mariners have a talented minor league system full of solid middle infield prospects at the lower levels. |
Post-season moves: B+
Team grade: B-
Prediction: 2nd in division (83-79)
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The Rangers of 2004 were one of the surprised teams in Major League Baseball. Buck Showalter's club stayed in the race longer than anyone could have expected,. but ultimately fell apart down the stretch. That team relied on outscoring their opponents and this year will be very similar if the Rangers come close to matching their success of last season.
Texas has to find some quality starting pitching to go with Kenny Rogers and Ryan Drese if they want to take the next step in the AL West. Showalter used 17 different starting pitchers last year who posted a collective ERA of 5.16. The bullpen was a pleasant surprise and will need to be strong again if the Rangers hope to contend.
The pitching is so important because offense is a given with this team. Four players are capable of hitting at least 30 home runs and that doesn't even account for Richard Hidalgo and Michael Young.
The Ballpark at Arlington is a paradise for hitters, especially when Texas heats up in the summer. As much progress as the Rangers made last year, don't expect them to be any better in 2005. The lack of pitching talent is too much for even this prolific offense to overcome.
| Rotation | The rotation's big addition in the off-season was free agent Pedro Astacio. While not exactly a big name, Astacio should outperform perennial underachiever Chan Ho Park who is supposedly down to his last chance in Texas. Kenny Rogers is the Rangers only reliable option in the rotation. Keep an eye on Chris Young, a 6'10" rookie who had an offer from the Sacramento Kings to play in the NBA. |
| Middle Relief | His is an area of concern for the Rangers as the bullpen was called upon to throw a lot of innings in 2004 to make up for consistent short starts. There is talent there in pitchers like Frank Francisco, however, with the inconsistent nature of relievers, don't bet against[it's not clear here whether you think they will match 04 or not] the Rangers 'pen to match their 2004 ERA of 3.46 in 2005. |
| Closer | Francisco Cordero saved 49 games in 2004 and did it in dominating fashion. The flame-throwing right hander struck out more than a batter an inning last year and allowed only one home run all season. Expect a lot more K's and saves from Cordero in 2005. |
| Infield | Quite possibly the best infield in the majors, the Rangers have 4 potential all-stars in Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young and Hank Blalock. Expect Blalock, Texieira and Soriano to each hit 30+ HR while Young should continue to hit like no one ever thought he could. |
| Outfield | In RF Richard Hildalgo should produce some good numbers while playing half his games at The Ballpark at Arlington. LF Kevin Mench is poised for a big 2005 as he had a great end to last season. |
| DH | David Dellucci looks to be the DH right now. If that is the case, expect several players to get at-bats as the designated hitter to save them an occasional day out in the field. |
| Bench Depth | Greg Colbrunn, Mark DeRosa and Gary Matthews Jr. are nice role players. Adrian Gonzalez is a former #1 overall selection who could be a nice left-handed bat to have off the bench if he can start to hit for a bit more power. |
| Prospect Watch | Most of the Rangers best prospects are in the lower levels of the minors. Young and Juan Dominguez will get a crack at the starting rotation and fellow pitching prospect John Hudgins could be called up by midseason. Gonzalez could see time with the big club if he can start to hit for a bit more power. |
Post-season moves: C
Team grade: C
Prediction: 3rd in division (80-82)
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Most teams that are riding a wave of five straight 90+ win seasons with playoff appearances in four of those five years would think they are just a couple minor adjustments away from a World Series title. Obviously the Oakland A's aren't normal.
General Manager Billy Beane spent the off-season completely reshaping his team to allow it to continue success over the long run instead of planning only for the short term. Gone are two members of the A's Big Three along with Jermaine Dye, Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman. Taking the place of those veterans on the A's roster will be younger players with low salaries that allow the small-market A's to stay competitive.
Just how young are the A's? Oakland has only six players on the roster over 30 years old. Only two of those players, 36 year-old Scott Hatteberg and 31 year-old Octavio Dotel, project to be key contributors. The performance of the youngsters, especially the pitching staff, will determine just how far the A's can go this season. Even though Oakland shouldn't be expected to challenge for the division title this season, the future looks bright in Oakland thanks to Beane's daring off-season moves.
| Rotation | The 3-4-5 spots in the Oakland rotation are up for grabs with rookies Joe Blanton, Dan Haren and Dan Meyer the front runners. There are other possibilities including Juan Cruz and Justin Duchscherer. Whoever fills these spots in the rotation will go a long way to determining the success of the A's in 2005. However, that isn't the only question mark in the A's rotation. Staff “ace” Barry Zito was a .500 pitcher last year and needs to bounce back and be a stabilizing force. |
| Middle Relief | The A's have several options in the bullpen in 2005. Once the starting rotation is decided, Oakland can set up its bullpen.New additions Kiko Calero and Cruz should join Ricardo Rincon in the 'pen. Prospects Jairo Garcia and Houston Street could get an opportunity now that Chad Bradford is out until June with backsurgery. |
| Closer | Octavio Dotel was shaky as the Oakland closer last year as the A's bullpen blew 28 saves. Dotel must be more consistent this year and convert save opportunities especially with the youth of this team. Late inning losses could have a devastating effect on such a young group. |
| Infield | Hatteberg, Keith Ginter, Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez should be the regular starting infield for the A's and it should be a very productive group. Ginter hade a very good year with Milwaukee last season and Crosby, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, should improve in 2005 despite hitting only .199 in the 2nd half last season. |
| Outfield | Mark Kotsay and Eric Byrnes will start in center and left field respectively for the A's. In right field is top prospect Nick Swisher, the first member of the “Moneyball” draft to make it to the majors. Swisher is a switch hitter with good plate discipline and power, who Billy Beane is counting on to replace the production of Jermaine Dye at a fraction of the cost. |
| DH | Erubiel Durazo's ability to walk has been his best known asset. However, in 2004 his walks went down, but all of his other numbers went up. He set career highs in OBP, SLG, AVG, HR and RBI. Whatever change he made in his approach, the A's hope he sticks with it. |
| Bench Depth | The A's will have some nice options on the bench as IF's Mark Ellis and Marco Scutaro have both started for the A's for extended periods in the past. OF's Charles Thomas had a nice year in Atlanta in 2004 and should be a good 4th outfielder who can play excellent defense. |
| Prospect Watch | The A's have loads of useful young players and their fans will see many of the best in 2005. Pitchers like Meyer, Blanton and Haren are sure to see time in Oakland this year and Street and Garcia should as well. Swisher is the organizations top overall prospect and the right field job is his to lose. 1B Dan Johnson also could make the team as a reserve. |
Post-season moves: A
Team grade: C
Prediction: 4th in division (78-84)
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Anaheim Angles, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim or the Bastard Children of I-5? Who cares, this team should run away with the division no matter what you call them. Last year the Halos won their first division title since 1986 when Gene Mauch was penciling in Wally Joyner, Reggie Jackson, Gary Pettis and Mike Witt into his lineup card. And this year, they'll be even better.
The Angels have a lineup with good offensive players at every position except for catcher. The outfield is the best in baseball while the rotation is the best in the division. Orlando Cabrera and his Gold Glove caliber defense was added to the infield and the bullpen is cheap and extremely effective.
This team would look even better if they had been able to get Matt Clement through free agency instead of Paul Byrd, but make no mistake, this team should cruise to a division title and be a scary opponent for someone in October. But this time, the Angels won't sneak up on anyone like when they won the World Series in 2002.
| Rotation | The rotation is the best in the division by far. The Angels hope Bartolo Colon can pitch for a full season like he did in the second half last year when he went 12 -4 after the break. Kelvim Escobar pitched very well last year but his record didn't reflect it due to lack of run support. Jarrod Washburn is in a contract year and that motivates most players. Paul Byrd is a nice gamble at $5 million and John Lackey hopes to be able to harness his stuff consistently. |
| Middle Relief | The Angels are the only team in baseball without a left-handed reliever but who cares? They led the AL in bullpen ERA last season so there is no reason to change now. Brendan Donnelly had a nice year after rebounding from a badly broken nose in spring training. Scot Shields and Kevin Gregg are both underrated but integral to the bullpen's success. |
| Closer | Francisco Rodriguez takes over the role that has long been held by Troy Percival. Rodriguez showed the ability to fill in for Percival last year and has the filthy stuff to slam the door on opponents consistently. |
| Infield | 2B Adam Kennedy will miss the beginning of the season recovering from knee surgery, but utility man Chone Figgins is a more than capable replacement. Cabrera is a huge upgrade over David Eckstein at shortstop and rookie Dallas McPherson will start at 3rd base and is a Rookie of the Year frontrunner. Darin Erstad will play first and while he won't hit like the prototypical first baseman, he plays great defense and is the leader of this team. |
| Outfield | The trio of Garrett Anderson, Steve Finley and Vladmir Guerrero is the best outfield in baseball. All three could hit 30+ home runs and this group will be the driving force of the Angel offense in 2005. |
| DH | Rookie 1B Casey Kotchman is the second Anaheim rookie that enters 2005 with a starting job. Kotchman is also a top prospect and is another front runner for the Rookie of the Year award. Kotchman's minor league track record is impeccable except for injuries. |
| Bench Depth | The Angels bench is very deep with Figgins returning to his super utility role when Kennedy returns to health. OF Jeff DaVanon, C Jose Molina, IF Robb Quinlan also will be on the bench as capable and versatile options for manager Mike Scioscia. |
| Prospect Watch | Anaheim will have its two top prospects at the major league level this year in Kotchman and McPherson. In addition, there are other highly regarded prospected in the upper levels of the minors like P Ervin Santana and C Jeff Mathis. If injuries strike the Angels again this year, Cuban OF Kendry Morales may be called up to fill in, if he doesn't make the team out of spring training. |
Post-season moves: A-
Team grade: A-
Prediction: 1st in division (95-67)
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| 2005 Projected Standings | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Games Improved |
| Anaheim | 95 | 67 | — | +3 |
| Seattle | 83 | 79 | 12 | +20 |
| Texas | 80 | 82 | 15 | -9 |
| Oakland | 78 | 84 | 17 | -13 |
File last modified March 13, 2005
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