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By Brian Wilmer, Senior Staff Writer

2005 Major League Baseball Preview: National League Central

Division champ St. Louis marched through the National League in 2004, derailed only by the machine of destiny that was the Boston Red Sox. They lost arguably the heart and soul of their team in Edgar Renteria, and some usual challengers (Houston) and some not-so-usual challengers (Milwaukee?) look to knock the Cardinals from their perch.

2004 Final Standings
TeamWinsLossesGames BackGames Improved
St. Louis10557+20
Houston927013+5
Chicago897316+1
Cincinnati768629+7
Pittsburgh728932.5-3
Milwaukee679437.5-1


Predicted Final Standings

* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
Chicago Cubs
Finished 3rd in division, 6th in league, 11th overall
Marquee Players for 2005
3B Aramis Ramirez (.318/36/105)
SS Nomar Garciaparra (.297/4/20 after trade)
RHP Carlos Zambrano (16-8, 2.75)
Good AdditionsBad AdditionsKey Losses
2B/OF Jerry Hairston
OF Jeromy Burnitz
RHP Roberto Novoa
C Henry Blanco OF Sammy Sosa
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
RHP Matt Clement
OF Moises Alou


The Cubs are following the "addition by subtraction" mode of thinking in an attempt to return to the top of the Central division.

Rotation Carlos Zambrano (16-8, 2.75)
Kerry Wood (8-9, 3.72)
Greg Maddux (16-11, 4.02)
Mark Prior (6-4, 4.02)
Glendon Rusch (6-2, 3.47)

Cy Young candidate Zambrano anchors the rotation, with Wood looking to rebound from a so-so year, and Maddux trying to continue his 15-win season streak. Prior returns from injury to join Glendon Rusch on the staff.

Middle Relief RHP LaTroy Hawkins (5-4, 2.63, 25 SV)
RHP Joe Borowski (2-4, 8.02)
RHP Roberto Novoa (1-1, 5.57 w/Detroit)
LHP Mike Remlinger (1-2, 3.44)
RHP Jon Leicester (5-1, 3.89)

This arrangement could vary greatly, depending on the success (or lack thereof) of the Ryan Dempster experiment at closer. All five of the men in middle relief could close, if need be. Leicester and Novoa are particularly good-looking young prospects. Todd Wellemeyer leads a group of hopefuls looking to crack the pen and head north.

Closer Ryan Dempster (1-1, 3.92, 2 SV)

This may not last even through the spring, but Dempster is the man on whom Baker is pinning his hopes at present. Dempster was once a prime prospect in the Marlins organization, but arm troubles have derailed his progress. The Cubs hope he has passed by those problems.

Infield C Michael Barrett (.287/16/65)
1B Derrek Lee (.278/32/98)
2B Todd Walker (.274/15/50)
SS Nomar Garciaparra (.297/4/20 after trade)
3B Aramis Ramirez (.318/36/105)

This is a pretty solid infield, and looks to be made even stronger by the addition of Garciaparra for a full season. Ramirez is turning into an elite-level player, and hopes to become paid as such. Lee and Walker provide a solid right side of the infield, while Barrett enjoyed a career renaissance in 2004.

Outfield Jeromy Burnitz (.283/37/110 w/Colorado)
Jerry Hairston (.303/2/24 w/Baltimore)
Corey Patterson (.266/24/72)

Hairston, who came over in the Sosa trade, joins Coors-inflated Burnitz and rising star Patterson in the Cubs outfield. Burnitz should enjoy the friendly confines of Wrigley, and the Cubs outfield should enjoy the added athleticism over the Alou/Patterson/Sosa formation of 2004.

Bench Depth UTIL Jose Macias
OF Todd Hollandsworth
OF Jason DuBois
C Henry Blanco

A traditional Cub weakness again rears its ugly head, as Blanco will again be Maddux's personal caddy, while overall depth here is possibly the weakest in the division.

Prospect Watch RHP Sergio Mitre
INF Ronny Cedeno
INF Richard Lewis

Mitre impressed in a brief 2004 audition at the big-league level, and could easily step in as an injury (or trade) replacement. Lewis and Cedeno are high-grade infield prospects that are both in the major league camp. Prospects such as Bobby Brownlie also await their chances in the Cubs system.



Post-season moves: B-

Team grade: B

Prediction: 3rd in division (88-74)

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Cincinnati Reds
Finished 4th in division, 10th in league, 19th overall
Marquee Players for 2005
1B Sean Casey (.324/24/99)
OF Adam Dunn (.266/46/102)
OF Ken Griffey Jr. (.253/20/60)
Good AdditionsBad AdditionsKey Losses
LHP Eric Milton
LHP Kent Mercker
3B Joe Randa
RHP Ramon Ortiz
None Griffey's legs, yet again


The Reds appear to be making strides at about the highest pace capable of a small-market team. Those strides will not be enough to get them anywhere near the top of the stacked Central, however.

Rotation Eric Milton (14-6, 4.75 w/Philadelphia)
Ramon Ortiz (5-7, 4.43 w/Anaheim Los Angeles)
Paul Wilson (11-6, 4.36)
Aaron Harang (10-9, 4.86)
Josh Hancock (5-1, 4.45 after trade)

The rotation gains a little bit of depth with the additions of Ortiz and Milton, but still needs some help in the back end. Hancock is a former top Phillie prospect, while Harang, a former A's prospect himself, showed promise in 2004.

Middle Relief Ryan Wagner (3-2, 4.70)
Joe Valentine (1-2, 5.22)
Luke Hudson (4-2, 2.42)
Kent Mercker (3-1, 2.55 w/Cubs)
Ben Weber (0-2, 8.06 w/Anaheim Los Angeles)
David Weathers (7-7, 4.15 w/Mets, Astros and Marlins)

Hudson could start here, as he enjoyed success doing that last year. Mercker returns to Cincinnati, flanked by former #1 pick Wagner, and imports Weber and Weathers.

Closer Danny Graves (1-6, 3.95, 41 SV)

Graves returned to the closer role after an unremarkable year as a starter, and enjoyed solid success at the end of games for the Reds. He will again fill that role in 2005.

Infield C Jason LaRue (.251/14/55)
1B Sean Casey (.324/24/99)
2B D'Angelo Jimenez (.270/12/67)
SS Felipe Lopez (.242/7/31)/Rich Aurilia (.246/6/44 w/Seattle and San Diego)
3B Joe Randa (.287/8/56 w/Kansas City)

Jimenez finally lived up to the hype he enjoyed as a prospect in the San Diego system, while Lopez could not live up to the same hype he received in the Blue Jay organization. As such, Rich Aurilia has been brought in to challenge Lopez, and could very well take the job.

Outfield Adam Dunn (.266/46/102)
Ken Griffey Jr. (.253/20/60)
Wily Mo Pena (.259/26/66)

If Griffey can finally find a year where he stays healthy throughout, this could be a very formidable outfield on the field, as well as on paper. Austin Kearns will apparently be unable to crack this group, and he will provide bench depth until/unless he is traded.

Bench Depth UTIL Ryan Freel
OF Austin Kearns
C Javier Valentin
IF Anderson Machado/Ray Olmedo

The bench depth is not half-bad in Cincinnati, as Freel and Kearns particularly should still see a lot of field time. The battle between Machado and Olmedo for a backup infield job should be mildly intriguing.

Prospect Watch INF Edwin Encarnacion
RHP Todd Coffey
IF William Bergolla
These are the three guys closest to making the big-league roster. They are all on the 40-man, and will all head to the big-league camp this spring. Encarnacion is a corner infielder, and could take over when Randa leaves.


Post-season moves: C

Team grade: C

Prediction: 4th in division (76-86)

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Houston Astros
Finished 2nd in division, 4th in league, 6th overall
Marquee Players for 2005
1B Jeff Bagwell (.266/27/89)
OF Lance Berkman (.316/30/106)
OF Craig Biggio (.281/24/63)
RHP Roger Clemens (18-4, 2.93)
Good AdditionsBad AdditionsKey Losses
N/A LHP John Franco OF Carlos Beltran
IF Jeff Kent
RHP Wade Miller


The Astros were a wildcard team in 2004, and look to challenge for the division after the tough losses of Kent and Beltran. Many of the pieces are still in place.

Rotation Roger Clemens (18-4, 2.93)
Roy Oswalt (20-10, 3.49)
Andy Pettitte (6-4, 3.90)
Brandon Backe (5-3, 4.30)
Tim Redding (5-7, 5.72)

Pettitte is returning from injury to help form the dangerous top three in the rotation that the Astros envisioned for 2004. The difference this year is that they have found a solid fourth starter in Backe.

Middle Relief Chad Qualls (4-0, 3.55)
Dan Wheeler (0-0, 2.51 after trade)
Pete Munro (4-7, 5.15)
Mike Gallo (0-2, 4.74)
John Franco (2-7, 5.28 w/Mets)
Chad Harville (0-3, 4.75 after trade)

The Astros had quite a find in Qualls, who was a star late in the season. Franco comes over from the Mets to join former A's reliever Chad Harville and the other usual suspects.

Closer Brad Lidge (6-5, 1.90, 29 SV)

Lidge stepped in for Octavio Dotel after he was dealt to the A's, and did a phenomenal job. Lidge throws an excellent slider to go along with his upper-90s heat.

Infield C Brad Ausmus (.248/5/31)
1B Jeff Bagwell (.266/27/89)
2B Chris Burke (.059/0/0)
SS Adam Everett (.273/8/31)
3B Morgan Ensberg (.275/10/66)

The light-hitting Ausmus anchors the infield, joined by (among others) rookie Chris Burke, who has the unenviable task of replacing Jeff Kent, who left for Los Angeles.

Outfield Lance Berkman (.316/30/106)
Craig Biggio (.281/24/63)
Jason Lane (.272/4/19)

Lane gets first crack at taking over for Carlos Beltran in the outfield, but will be pushed hard by super-prospect Willy Taveras. Biggio and Berkman are fixtures — the only question is Berkman's ability to recover from injury.

Bench Depth OF Orlando Palmeiro
OF Willy Taveras
IF Mike Lamb
IF Jose Vizcaino
C Raul Chavez

Lamb had a resurgent year in 2004, and will be the first option off the bench. Vizcaino and Palmeiro are solid veteran options, and should also see a decent amount of time.

Prospect Watch Taveras
Burke
Taylor Buchholz

Taveras and Burke should make the trip to Houston with the big club this spring, and Buchholz will not be far behind. He is a solid righthander who came over from the Phillies in the Billy Wagner trade.



Post-season moves: C

Team grade: A-

Prediction: 2nd in division (91-67)

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Milwaukee Brewers
Finished 6th in division, 14th in league, 25th overall
Marquee Players for 2005
Geoff Jenkins (.264/27/93)
Carlos Lee (.305/31/99 w/White Sox)
Ben Sheets (12-14, 2.70)
Good AdditionsBad AdditionsKey Losses
RHP Jose Capellan
OF Carlos Lee
RHP Justin Lehr
C Damian Miller
RHP Ricky Bottalico
INF Russell Branyan
OF Scott Podsednik
RHP Danny Kolb
RHP Luis Vizcaino


Promise not to laugh...the Brewers really aren't that bad. They made a few positive steps for the future in acquiring a decent mix of proven veterans and prospects, and appear to at least be capable of fielding a competitive club.

Rotation Ben Sheets (12-14, 2.70)
Doug Davis (12-12, 3.39)
Victor Santos (11-12, 4.97)
Ben Hendrickson (1-8, 6.22)
Wes Obermueller (6-8, 5.80)

Sheets and Davis are capable at the top of the rotation, but Obermueller and the like at the bottom need to be more effective. Chris Capuano could also crack the rotation, among others.

Middle Relief Mike Adams (2-3, 3.40)
Jeff Bennett (1-5, 4.79)
Chris Capuano (6-8, 4.99)
Gary Glover (2-1, 3.50)
Brooks Kieschnick (1-1, 3.77)

There are a myriad of other names that could wind up in the pen, but these are the most likely. Kieschnick should be assured of a spot because of his versatility.

Closer RHP Jose Capellan (0-1, 11.25 w/Atlanta)

The flamethrowing righthander will likely get a shot at closing games after coming over in the Kolb trade. He was routinely clocked at 100 mph in the minors, and his decent breaking stuff will only help his cause.

Infield C Damian Miller (.272/9/58 w/Oakland)
1B Lyle Overbay (.301/16/87)
2B Junior Spivey (.272/7/28)
SS J.J. Hardy (NA) 3B Wes Helms (.263/4/28)

Miller comes over to provide veteran leadership behind the plate, where it will be sorely needed. Rookie hotshot Hardy looks to take over at short.

Outfield Carlos Lee (.305/31/99 w/White Sox)
Geoff Jenkins (.264/27/93)
Brady Clark (.280/7/46)

Lee immediately gives the Brewers a potent bat in the middle of the lineup to go along with Jenkins. Clark had a decent year in 2004, and will look to continue those ways.

Bench Depth IF Rickie Weeks
OF Dave Krynzel
IF Russell Branyan
C Chad Moeller

Two of the top Brewer prospects band together with two journeyman veterans to form the Brewer bench. While not the deepest in the league, the Brewers' bench should get a few well-placed hits.

Prospect Watch Weeks
Krynzel
Hardy
IF Prince Fielder
OF Corey Hart

The Brewers have a loaded farm system as a result of several trades and good drafts. Once these young kids all reach the majors, they should be truly frightening to watch.



Post-season moves: B

Team grade: C+

Prediction: 5th in division (74-88)

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Pittsburgh Pirates
Finished 5th in division, 11th in league, 20th overall
Marquee Players for 2005
IF/OF Craig Wilson (.264/29/82)
OF Jason Bay (.282/26/82)
LHP Oliver Perez (12-10, 2.98)
Good AdditionsBad AdditionsKey Losses
OF Matt Lawton N/A C Jason Kendall


The Pirates are the standard-bearer for small-market teams. They did virtually nothing in the offseason, but did not really have the resources to do much. They have a longer wait for their kids than does Milwaukee.

Rotation Oliver Perez (12-10, 2.98)
Josh Fogg (11-10, 4.64)
Kip Wells (5-7, 4.55)
Mark Redman (11-12, 4.71 w/Oakland)
Dave Williams (2-3, 4.42)

The Pirate rotation will be loaded with lefthanders, which should bode well against some of the lefties and switch-hitters in the NL Central. Redman is an average starter on most teams, but will likely be the #2 guy on the banks of the Three Rivers.

Middle Relief Salomon Torres (7-7, 2.64)
Mike Gonzalez (3-1, 1.25)
Brian Meadows (2-4, 3.58)
John Grabow (0-2, 5.11)
Mike Johnston (0-3, 4.37)

The rubber-armed Meadows and Torres will team with hot prospect Gonzalez and middling lefties Grabow and Johnston to round out the Pittsburgh pen.

Closer Jose Mesa (5-2, 3.25, 43 SV)

The ageless wonder did it again. He recorded more saves than many more established pitchers on much more explosive teams. He may hang it up after this year and pass the reins on to Gonzalez, but expect another solid year from good ol' Joe Table.

Infield C Benito Santiago (.274/6/23 w/Kansas City)
1B Daryle Ward (.249/15/57)
2B Jose Castillo (.256/8/39)
SS Jack Wilson (.308/11/59)
3B Rob Mackowiak (.246/17/75)

217-year-old Santiago takes over for Kendall, with the only other appreciable change being Mackowiak taking over at third. If Mackowiak can hit for a better average, he would make a nice fit in the #2 spot in the batting order.

Outfield Craig Wilson (.264/29/82)
Matt Lawton (.277/20/70 w/Cleveland)
Tike Redman (.280/8/51)

The addition of Lawton to this team gives them an added dimension of speed and power at the top of the lineup, and he should fit nicely in the third spot in the lineup. He and Wilson will man the corners, while Redman roams center.

Bench Depth C Humberto Cota
IF Ty Wigginton
??

The Pirate bench is likely the worst in the league, and, barring free agent signings or trades, will be loaded with kids.

Prospect Watch C Ryan Doumit
P John Van Benschoten
P Sean Burnett
P Ian Snell

The Pirates are loaded with young pitching, and were it not for injuries to both Van Benschoten and Burnett, they would likely be in the rotation. The main thing with which the Pirates need to concern themselves is finding a minor league program that will keep from blowing up young arms.



Post-season moves: D

Team grade: C-

Prediction: 6th in division (68-94)

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St. Louis Cardinals
Finished 1st in division, 1st in league, 1st overall
Marquee Players for 2005
3B Scott Rolen (.314/34/124)
OF Jim Edmonds (.301/42/112)
OF Larry Walker (.280/11/27 after trade)
IF Albert Pujols (.331/46/123)
Good AdditionsBad AdditionsKey Losses
LHP Mark Mulder
LHP Mike Myers
SS David Eckstein
N/A SS Edgar Renteria
2B Tony Womack
RHP Danny Haren
LHP Steve Kline


The Cardinals hope to follow up their being swept in the World Series with a completed title run. Taking a look at this team, signs point to "not likely".

Rotation Mark Mulder (17-8, 4.43 w/Oakland)
Chris Carpenter (15-5, 3.46)
Jason Marquis (15-7, 3.71)
Jeff Suppan (16-9, 4.16)
Matt Morris (15-10, 4.72)

Mulder is a Cy Young-quality lefthander that adds even more depth to an already-good Cardinal rotation. This is one of the strongest areas of their team.

Middle Relief Mike Myers (5-1, 4.64 w/Seattle and Boston)
Ray King (0-5, 2.61)
Cal Eldred (4-2, 3.76)
Julian Tavarez (0-7, 2.38)
Al Reyes (2-0, 1.75)

Myers replaces Steve Kline in an otherwise untouched bullpen. Randy Flores, Rick Ankiel, and Jimmy Journell could battle for a spot in the pen, as well.

Closer Jason Isringhausen (0-4, 2.87, 47 SV)

Isringhausen is still one of the top three closers in the league, but is largely unheralded outside of the Midwest. Count on him for another 42-45 saves, barring injury.

Infield C Yadier Molina (.267/2/15)
1B Albert Pujols (.331/46/123)
2B Mark Grudzielanek (.307/6/23 w/Cubs)
SS David Eckstein (.276/2/35 w/the team with the ridiculous name)
3B Scott Rolen (.314/34/124)

This looks to be a great infield...but...I'm not sold on Grudzielanek as anything other than a pretty good second baseman, and Eckstein is a considerable downgrade from Renteria. Renteria was the glue in that infield, and losing him just may cost them 5-7 wins, if not more.

Outfield Jim Edmonds (.301/42/112)
Larry Walker (.280/11/27 after trade)
Reggie Sanders (.260/22/67)

Second verse, same as the first...the 2004 outfield again returns to their familiar haunts. Look for Walker to have a pretty solid year if he can avoid the two letters that most haunt him (DL).

Bench Depth IF Hector Luna
OF Roger Cedeno
C Einar Diaz
UTIL John Mabry

Luna had a nice rookie year, and looks to be a serviceable utility guy. Journeyman Diaz comes over to back up Molina, and could very well wind up catching a long stretch of games if Molina struggles or gets hurt.

Prospect Watch RHP Anthony Reyes
RHP Adam Wainwright

Reyes had a wonderful season at AA Tennessee last year, but Wainwright (who came over in the Jason Marquis/Ray King deal) is by far the more big-league ready of the two. Wainwright is a tall, powerful righthander who was once the top pitching prospect in the Braves' system.



Post-season moves: C

Team grade: A-

Prediction: 1st in division (94-68)

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2005 Predicted Standings
TeamWinsLossesGames BackGames Improved
St. Louis9468-11
Houston91713-1
Chicago88746-1
Cincinnati7686180
Milwaukee748820+7
Pittsburgh689426-4


File last modified March 13, 2005


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