Stealing Third
Baserunning has become the lost art in the major leagues. Rickey Henderson was the last of the great basestealers, not because the knowledge of the art disappeared with Atlantis and the Tigers, but because the game changed. With the increased focus on power baseball, risking the out by stealing second or third becomes less of a palatable option. It makes just as much sense, so goes the logic, to drive in the runner from first base as it does second or third.
The decline in basestealing skills has corresponded with decreased baserunning skills — and basecoaching skills. Wendell Kim, for example, has been around the league far too long to not see the change in the game. Yet he keeps sending pokey baserunners around third. Most recently, it was Damian Miller, catcher. Six foot, three inches. Listed as 220 lbs. Three, count them, three career stolen bases in seven seasons. Three career triples. Earlier this season, it was pitcher Matt Clement (6'3", 210 lbs). And these aren't Kim's first ill-advised waves, either. Ask Red Sox fans who dubbed him "Windmill Kim" and the Expos fan who dubbed him "Wavin' Wendell". Even Boog Powell would get the wave around from Kim.
Why steal second? There are several parts to the answer.
- A runner on second has an opportunity score on a single (even with Wendell Kim as his coach), and should easily score on a double.
- Eliminates the possibility of a ground ball double play (especially with a slow batter at the plate or a sinkerballer on the mound)
- The threat of the steal shifts the middle infielders towards the bag, opening more of a gap for the hitter.
- The throw from the plate to second is about 37 feet longer than to third (90 feet multiplied by the square root of 2).
Stealing third isn't really an effective offensive weapon. If there is someone on second fast enough to steal third, he should score easily on a single from second. Being on third gives him not much more of an advantage. A sacrifice fly that would score a runner from third would move the runner over to third anyway. The threat of a steal of third won't move the third baseman — generally with a runner in scoring position, he'd guard the line anyway.
But let's look more at the physics of stealing a base. For arguments sake, say that a pitcher throws 90 mph and a catcher throws 80 mph. Some pitchers throw faster, some catchers probably throw stronger, but the difference is slight. It takes about 1.08 seconds for the ball to leave the catcher's hand to get to second base (about 127 feet), and about .44 for it to leave the pitchers fingers to travel over home plate. This doesn't include the time for the catcher to transfer the ball from the glove and to wind up and make the throw. For our argument, it won't make much of a difference. Our baserunner makes the run at 14 miles per hour. Given a lead of 8 feet, he can make it to second base in 4 seconds. While this doesn't include sliding, again, it won't make much of a difference to discuss it. This means the runner needs to get at least 2 1/2 seconds of held ball time by the pitcher (in the delivery), the catcher (in the transfer), and the fielder (in making the catch and applying the tag).
The throw to third is much shorter. We'll call it 90 feet, even though the catcher needs to work around the batter. The same throw takes only .767 seconds, more than 3/10ths of a second faster. In order for our runner to reduce his time to make third, he needs to have an additional 6 1/2 feet of lead. That's a tremendous lead our fellow has back there, and it's more than a dive back to second if he dares it. A right-handed pitcher has an advantage over the runner at second, since it's fairly easy to look back to see if he's more than 10 feet away from the base. If the runner is too far, the pitcher can easily step off the rubber without having to make the throw. The throw is also easier for the catcher to throw down towards the bag, since he doesn't have to worry about knocking his pitcher unconscious with a low throw.
Pitch speed doesn't matter all that much. An 80 mph pitch will take an extra .053 seconds to get to the plate than our 90 mph pitch. That makes a difference only a foot for the fleetest baserunner. This is why a pitchout should work most of the time — having the catcher in position to throw faster without the interference of the batter makes a tremendous difference. Shaving a 1/4 second off the transfer process (between the pitcher's hurried motion and the catcher's savings) is the difference of over 5 feet for the runner.
However, there are pitchers runners can steal against all the time. A pitcher with a pokey delivery contributes to the 2 1/2 seconds the thief needs; a catcher with a lousy transfer or forced to move out of his throwing motion to catch the ball will cause problems as well. Some pitchers have "tells" — items in their motion that indicate they are committing to the plate. The runner reads the tell and can take off much earlier in the motion.
Who are the worst pitchers in baseball at keeping runners at first? Al Leiter has allowed one steal on average per ballgame the past couple seasons — and he's a lefty. Kevin Millwood has given up over 30 stolen bases this year — while Lieberthal and Pratt for the Phils aren't the best throw-'em-out catchers in the game, 47% of the stolen bases given up by the team are on Millwood's watch. Ditto for Piazza and the rest of the Mets gang — Leiter accounts for 1/3 of the stolen bases surrendered.
File last modified March 01, 2004
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